Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Position Paper - Death Penalty Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Position Paper - Death Penalty - Essay Example Death penalty has been present ever since the societal shift from being primitive communal to the slave society state wherein civilizations were formed and rulers were made. The death penalty was implemented by the earliest civilizations yet there were no formal records of a death sentence being served. According to the Web site library.thinkquest.org, death penalty has very old roots; in fact, there is evidence of its application even in peoples such as Babylonians, ancient Egyptians, Greeks and Romans. (). The earliest recorded death sentence according to the Web site www.pbs.org was in the 16th century when a member of the Egyptian nobility was accused of magic, and was ordered to take his own life. (). Through the ages death penalty was implemented, it was only the manner of which it was executed and of how it was perceived changed through time, the manner changed from the guillotine and hanging through the firing squad and lethal injection, a brief history of how death penalty w as done and the violations which led to a death sentence is presented in the Web site www.pbs.org. () It was only since after World War II, that there has been a consistent trend in abolishing the death penalty. (â€Å"Death Penalty Worldwide†, en.wikipedia.org, ). Political as well has humane considerations have been taken into account in the abolition of death penalty as a punishment for some crimes. Since the start of abolition, the number of death penalty sentences served curved down, although capital punishment was still retained in other countries, most of these countries are those with religious considerations. The Instruments of death were also changed, some were more harsh than others, in some countries morbid methods

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Strategic Analysis Of Carnival Corporation And Plc Tourism Essay

Strategic Analysis Of Carnival Corporation And Plc Tourism Essay Humans have since time immemorial been fascinated with ships, seas and oceans. Whilst ships have in the past been used mainly for transportation of goods and people and of course for war, seafaring has always been associated with travel to new and strange destinations, excitement and romance. With the contemporary day and age being firmly focused on new alternatives for leisure, excitement and life experiences, the western tourism industry has astutely used this human fascination with the seas to develop an extremely desirable tourism option; namely sea and ocean cruises. Such cruises offer exciting and pleasurable vacation options for people. They are offered by specialised cruise liners and provide customers the experience of travelling on the high seas in large, well appointed and luxurious ocean going vessels. Cruise holidays provide customers with luxury experiences and opportunities to engage in numerous leisure activities like (a) sun bathing on expansive ocean liner decks, (b) use of large swimming pools, (c) a range of body comfort activities through the use of spas, gyms and Jacuzzis, (d) various types of eating and dining options, and (e) a range of on ship holiday activities like games, contests, singing and dancing. The modern day cruise industry emerged in the 1970s in North America (Dowling, 2006). Whilst cruises originally aimed to provide customers with luxurious trans-ocean transportation options, the industry has since then transformed into a vacation alternative for people to travel to land based destinations or to sightseeing locations in the oceans (Dowling, 2006). A cruise now stands for a complete start-to-finish experience in luxury, comfort and the good life, rather than an option for travelling from point A to point B (Dowling, 2006). Whilst cruise vacationers still form a very small segment (just about 2%) of the global tourism industry, their volumes grew from 500,000 passengers in 1970 to 6.6 million passengers in 2000 (Gisnas et al, 2008). Such volumes have continued to grow during the last decade and are estimated to be 17 million annual passengers today (Gisnas et al, 2008). The industry experienced significant growth in the 1970s, when it first emerged, and has been growing at between 8 and 9% since then (Gisnas et al, 2008). Sectoral growth in the cruise sector has also not been cyclical like other shipping segments (Gisnas et al, 2008). Carnival Corporation and plc (Carnival Corporation) is the worlds largest operator of cruise ships. With 11 individual brands and a total fleet of 96 vessels, the organisation operates cruises in North America, Europe and Australia (Carnival, 2010). Whilst the global recession affected the travel and tourism industry significantly and also affected the revenues of the company to some extent, Carnival Corporation expects to grow significantly in the coming years, as recessionary forces weaken and individual and business spending starts moving upwards once again (Carnival, 2010). This specific analysis attempts to (a) examine the operations and mechanisms of the cruise industry, (b) analyse the strategies and operations of Carnival Corporation, and (c) recommend suitable future growth strategies for the company. 2. Overview of Cruise Industry 2.1. Brief history of Cruise Industry The first cruise route, historical records reveal, was established by British PO in 1882 with the introduction of S/Y Ceylon for pleasure cruising (Cartwright Baird, 1999). The ship operated on the western coast of Norway and was well known to wealthy UK citizens (Cartwright Baird, 1999). The most famous example of a cruise liner of those days is that of the Titanic, which sank on her maiden voyage from Southampton to New York, in April 1912, after a collision with an iceberg (Cartwright Baird, 1999). Whilst trans-ocean services between North America and Europe expanded greatly between the two great wars, the emergence of commercial aircraft after the closure of the Second World War led to the elimination of human transportation through ships (Cartwright Baird, 1999). The years that followed the closure of human transportation through ships however saw the emergence and the steady growth of pleasure and tourism oriented cruises (Cartwright Baird, 1999). The cruise market is currently dominated by three important organisations namely, Carnival Corporation (the subject of this study), Royal Caribbean International and Star Cruises. Whilst the industry was home to a number of players in the 1970s and 1980s, progressive mergers and alliances have led to the formation of oligopolistic market situation that is dominated by three strong entities (Gisnas et al, 2008). Carnival Corporation leads the business with a 45% market share, followed by Royal Caribbean (21%) and Star Cruises (10%) (Gisnas et al, 2008). Appendix 1 provides details of the capacities of the major cruise liners. The cruise market is divided into two main geographic segments, (a) the US market and (b) the European market. The US market, which includes North America and the Caribbean, forms 62% of the total market, whereas Europe accounts for 24% of cruise users (Kamery, 2004). The European market, whilst smaller than the US market, is growing swiftly and is expected to increase by more than 9% per annum in the coming years (Kamery, 2004). The UK market has until now been the dominant European market, even as the German, Scandinavian, Benelux, Austrian and Swiss markets are showing strong growth (Kamery, 2004). Cruises can be segmented into five main categories, namely contemporary cruises, budget cruises, premium cruises, luxury cruises and special cruises. Appendix 2 provides details of the different types of cruises. The industry can otherwise be segmented by languages, which surprisingly is an important point of differentiation (Gisnas et al, 2008). Individuals prefer to go on cruises with people who speak the same language (Gisnas et al, 2008). Important market segments are (a) American families, (b) senior citizens from the EU, (c) conferences and incentives, (d) themes and (e) adventure (Gisnas et al, 2008). In North America the target population for cruises companies comprises of adults, who are more than 25 years in age and earn more than 40,000 USD per annum (Gisnas et al, 2008). The target market includes (a) people who have cruised before, (b) vacationers who have not previously engaged in cruises and (c) non vacationers as well (Gisnas et al, 2008). The segment makes up practically 44% of the US population (Gisnas et al, 2008). Whilst the average age of passengers has come down to just below 45 in the US, The average age of passengers in the UK is also coming down significantly (Gisnas et al, 2008). The potential of the market is high because the existing penetration rate at 3% for North America, 1% for Europe and 2% for UK is very low. The main markets continue to be North America and Europe. The Asian market is however growing very slowly. Appendix 3 Provides details of passengers both by nationality and by origin. 3. Analysis of Carnival Corporation 3.1. Company Overview Carnival Corporation plc is the market leader of the cruise industry. Carnival Corporation was founded in 1972 by Ted Arison (Carnival, 2010). Both Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc have grown organically, as well as through mergers that have led to significant increases in organisational operations (Carnival, 2010). The present organisation came about from a merger between Carnival Corporation and PO Princess Cruises plc, wherein it was agreed that PO would be listed on the London Stock Exchange (Carnival, 2010). The organisation is thus dually listed on the London and New York Stock Exchanges and has head offices at Miami, USA, and at Southampton, UK (Carnival, 2010). The company has 11 cruise line brands, each of which controls a geographical location. To elaborate, AIDA cruises controls the German business, Carnival Cruise lines, Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and the Seaborne Cruise Line operate in the United States, Cunard Line, Ocean Village, and PO Cruises service the UK market, Costa Cruises controls the Italian business, Iberio Cruises controls the Spanish business, and PO Cruises Australia controls the Australian business (Carnival, 2010). The organisation earned revenues of 13.1 billion USD in 2009 compared to 14.65 billion USD in 2008. It owns 93 ships, has a passenger capacity of 180,746, and employs 85,000 people. Carnival Corporation carried 8500 passengers in 2009 (Carnival, 2010). 3.2. Operational Performance The operations and financial performance of the company suffered significantly in 2009 compared to 2008. The sales and net income figures for these two years are provided below. Year 2009 2008 Sales Million USD 5912 6550 Percentage Movement (10%) Net Profits Million USD 885 1090 (19%) Net Profit Ratio 0.15 0.16 Whilst the company management states that they have been able to cushion the impact of the recession effectively, the financial analysis of key performance indicators reveals a different picture. Both sales and profits have come down sharply (Carnival, 2010). It also needs to be noticed that the sales of the organisation have come down by 10 %, even as the cruise industry overall contracted only by 3 % in 2009 (Carnival, 2010). Other operational and profitability ratios like ROI and have also come down in the wake of reduction in sales and profitability. 3.3. PESTEL Analysis The PESTEL frame works helps analysts to examine environmental factors in a methodical manner (Porter, 1980). The specific examination of political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal factors assist in understanding key change drivers and external influences on the working of organisations (Porter, 1980). A PESTEL analysis helps organisational managements in aligning organisational strategies with environmental realities and work towards ensuring that organisations do not purposely follow strategic rules that are at variance or in opposition to environmental forces (Porter, 1980). With cruise lines essentially being international in the nature of their operations, their working can be significantly affected by terrorism related conditions (Porter, 1980). Increase in terrorism activities invariably leads to stricter immigration laws and to reduction in tourism enthusiasm (Porter, 1980). Apart from terrorism, cruise activity can also be affected by political instability in geographical locations that are part of the cruise network, as well as by tourism related taxation policies in different countries (Porter, 1980). Tourism, being an essentially discretionary activity is strongly influenced by changes in global economic conditions (Porter, 1980). The last two years have seen reduction in tourism business and cruise activity. Apart from the economic environment, the movement of exchange rates can also affect tourism and consequently cruise activity. Whilst tourism is currently going through a difficult phase, (having reduced by 4% in 2008 and 2009, and expected to grow by 0.3% in 2010) a post recession boom is likely considering that tourism contributes approximately 10.6% of global GBP. Social and cultural features play important roles in the cruise industry (Porter, 1980). The majority of cruise customers come from affluent and western social segments and place great stress on lifestyle quality (Porter, 1980). The market for cruises has until now been dominated by customers from the advanced western nations. Cruise liners are constantly investing in technology to make their ships more customers friendly as well as easier to operate. Internet sales enable customers to reduce costs through elimination of intermediaries (Porter, 1980). The tourism industry, because of the associated travel costs, is strongly associated with emission of green house gases. Any sort of rationing of petroleum products can as such lead to significantly adverse effects upon the tourism and cruise sector. The cruise business can also be influenced to some extent by trade laws and customs procedures and regulation. The existing global visa regime is tremendously skewed in favour of the inhabitants of rich countries and this can affect the growth of cruise customers from the emerging nations. 3.4. Critical Success Factors Analysis of available information leads to the conclusion that success in the shipping industry will depend essentially upon economies of scale and degree of differentiation (Gisnas et al, 2008). Extending this concept to the cruise industry, the critical success factors in the industry can be narrowed down to the four following factors (Gisnas et al, 2008). Exploitation of scale economies: Economies of scale can be achieved in different operational areas like vessel size, maintenance programmes, and economies of hotel operations Product Differentiation: This can be achieved through the conceptualisation and implementation of different types of cruises. Generation of Customer Loyalty: This will enable companies to obtain higher shares of repeat customer business Management of Strategic Investments: This will enable an organisation to get infrastructural advantage through optimisation of investments, both in terms of money and costs. 4. Strategic Recommendation Carnival Corporation is currently experiencing difficult environmental conditions because of the global recession that was triggered off by the housing collapse and the subprime crises in the USA (Porter, 1980). With the economies of affluent North American and European countries, wherein the brunt of the crises, global tourism was significantly affected during the past two years (Porter, 1980). The bulk of the cruise industry services the citizens of the United States, the UK and other affluent European nations and a sharp economic downturn in these nations will expectedly have significantly adverse on the sales and operational performance of the members of this sector (Porter, 1980). The strategic growth plans for carnival Corporation must accordingly incorporate the impact of the extra ordinarily difficult current environment (Porter, 1980). Whilst the current economic environment is challenging the companys operational and financial capabilities, it is also providing significant opportunities to strong existing players (Porter, 1980). The growth recommendations for Carnival Corporation have been based upon the information obtained from the PESTEL analysis, the utilisation of strategic theories like Porters generic growth strategy and Ansoffs growth matrix, the critical success factors for members of the industry and the opportunities and threats that exists in the current environment (Porter, 1980). Michael Porter, in his seminal contribution towards corporate strategy forwarded the theory that companies can achieve competitive advantage only through the adoption of specific strategies, namely cost leadership, differentiation, or niche occupation (Porter, 1980). Porter went on to state that whilst many organisations feel the need to adopt more than one of such strategies, such an attitude was essentially faulty, and the desire by company managements to adopt essentially distinct operational strategies could lead to loss of focus, confusion in growth objectives and engagement in contradictory and self destructive actions (Porter, 1980). Carnival Corporation has constantly followed a strategy of differentiating of products from that of its competitors. Whilst the organisations growth is also due to its origin and operations in the extremely strong US and British markets, the company has constantly differentiated its offerings through innovation in the types and lengths of cruises to its customers. The company is otherwise strongly focused on sustainability and is taking action to reduce its carbon footprint through the lowering of energy use on its ships, preserving clean air, and reducing operational waste. The PESTEL analysis reveals that whilst the industry is vulnerable to global terrorism actions and the political instability of countries that form part of the operational area of the industry (Porter, 1980). Apart from such political factors, the industry is vulnerable to economic downturns. It is however becoming obvious that the downturn has possibly bottomed out and that western economies are moving towards recovery (Porter, 1980). Whilst recent economic developments in Greece and Spain are disquieting, broad economic indicators show the possibility of some economic improvement in 2010 and firm upward economic movement in 2011. This situation provides abundant opportunities to the companys growth plans. Whilst 2009 has seen a dip in the companys sales and profitability, financial reports reveal that the company has a very strong cash position and comfortable leverage ratios. With its considerable financial ability and its experience in growth through buyouts and acquisitions, the current economic circumstances should provide significant opportunities for the company to acquire smaller and financially weaker organisations, who would be finding it difficult to survive in the present circumstances. Igor Ansoffs model of growth stipulates that companies move in their growth curve from selling currently available services in existing markets through various phases to selling new products in new markets (Tutor2u.net, 2009). Ansoffs growth model is provided in appendix 4. Carnival Corporation should clearly follow a carefully formulated strategy of external and internal growth. External growth should be targeted through the search and acquisition of attractive cruiser lines whose operations and viability has suffered because of the crises. The corporate management should aggressively scout for acquisition and use its strong financial resources to good effect. Such a strategy will also lead to better scale economies and will of course need efficient management of strategic investments (Tutor2u.net, 2009). The company, in accordance with Ansoffs model should steadily pursue strategies for differentiating their services through the conceptualisation and implementation of different cruise themes. It is also opportune for the company to seriously look at the emerging Asian tourism sector, preferably through the acquisition of a local cruise operator. The Asian economy is fairing much better than the European economy and significant accretion is occurring in the upper middle class segments of China and India. Such population segments are totally unexposed to cruise vacations and provide fertile ground for Carnival Corporation to thrust their Asian operations. Carefully conceived strategic plan of organic and acquisitive growth will enable the company to consolidate its leadership position and exploit current environmental opportunities (Tutor2u.net, 2009). 5. Conclusions

Friday, October 25, 2019

Game Theory as it Relates to Abortion in Canada Essay -- Politics

Flanagan’s Status Quo In 1988 abortion legislation was abolished by the supreme court of Canada (Flanagan 120). Current law was deemed to violate a women’s â€Å"security of person† under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms (Wikipedia). Drafting and passing abortion legislation became the responsibility of the current Prime Minister and the House of Commons (Flanagan 121). Attempts by Brian Mulroney to introduce abortion legislation into the House of Commons and senate failed repeatedly (Flanagan 121). ) Despite public opinion favoring moderate legislation, abortion in Canada remains unlegislated (Flanagan 121).Under the circumstances stated why does Canadian abortion law remain in a state of limbo? In Game Theory and Canadian Politics Thomas Flanagan attempts to elucidate this seeming anomaly in Canadian politics. Firstly, the inability to pass new legislation is explained by the tendency for the status quo to prevail when a â€Å"cyclical opinion structure†(Flanagan 121) is present in the legislating body (Flanagan 121). Secondly, Flanagan (121) emphasizes how parliamentary outcomes are influenced by the procedures with which legislation is passed. These two points are illuminated and analyzed using aspects of game theory. Rational choice theory is used to analyze the parliamentary procedure and cyclical opinion structure that caused all possible resolutions and amendments introduced into the House of Commons to fail. Than, the game of chicken and extensive form games are introduced to explicate bill C-43’s majority vote in the House of Commons and subsequent failure in the senate. Although enlightening, Flanagan’s analysis lacks in-depth explanations and pertinent aspects of game theory. He comments on the vote’s failure t... ...the outcome is seen to mirror real life events. Finally, certain aspects of Flanagan’s sequential game model were critiqued and found deficient. Although Flanagan’s case study was enlightening, some aspects may be flawed and an enhanced analysis farther explicates the phenomenon of the â€Å"staying power of the status quo.† Works Cited Abortion in Canada." Wikipedia. 01 Apr.-May 2007 . Brams, Steven J. Rational Politics. Washinton, DC: Congressional Quarterly Inc., 1985. Flanagan, Thomas. Game Theory and Canadian Politics. Toronto: University of Toronoto Press, 1999. Gates, Scott, and Brian D. Humes. Games, Information and Politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1997. Green, Donald P., and Ian Shapiro. Pathologies of Rational Choice. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1994.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Deepest Fear

My deepest fear is fear within itself. In life there is no failure but only feedback. Being presented with different obstacles and making sufficient decisions in my life's path, has made me who i am today. As a child, my family always taught me that I must perform to the best of my abilities as a person in order to succeed in whatever I  pursue in life. As a child growing up in Clinton Public School Districts wasn’t such a walk in the park because success was the only option and the key to your future.It took me a while to understand everything I was brought up against as a student there but it made me learn a great deal about the diversity of cultures and how others may perceive the world differently than I would. It made me understand the concept when it came to things I can manage, with others that I cannot. Being a student at Clinton High made me realize that I could do anything to my fullest potential if I put forth effort.I had also overcame the feeling of being unlove d, abused and mistreated by someone I thought cared tremendously about me. I received many awards and recognitions throughout my school years such as hardworking, dedication, good Spirit, track Awards and many more. I participated in the choir, track, basketball, the Spanish club, pure guidance club, FCA (fellowship with Christians Association), help serve at the stewpot and many more.On May 25, 2012 not only did I overcome my fear of failure and doubt but I proved everyone one whoever went up against me wrong. This was the day that I rejoiced because I graduated from Clinton High School with a clean record, no baby and an acceptance letter to one of the top African American Schools in the state of Mississippi, Jackson State University.I believe majoring in Computer Science will be a great experience because I love computers and technology is my greatest strength. It will better me when it comes to dealing with things hands-on and challenge my thinking process even more. I believe a lso, that majoring in Computer Science will also build me up as a person because setbacks in one's life better prepare one  for the greater challenges that will lie ahead.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Demographic Winter and Its Effects on the Society Essay

Concept Paper Final Draft: â€Å"Demographic Winter and Its Effect on Society† For years, people have in mind that the world’s population has been increasing annually. While it is true that a daily increment of 215,060 and yearly growth of 1.10% is happening on our world population of 7,174,592,903 (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, population Estimates, and Projections Sections), the demographic trend is actually changing in contrast to the beliefs of many. Historical events that occurred in the past, particularly the World Wars, have paved the way for the eradication of a large portion of mankind, but it also resulted to population explosion. The Baby Boom, a demographic phenomenon in Western countries, rose to fame wherein rapid growth in population was recorded around 1960s. This is usually ascribed within certain geographical bounds and when the number of annual births exceeds 2 per 100 women (or approximately 2% of the total population size) (Wikimedia Foudation, Inc). As the paper progresses, such belief will be proven as a myth these days. In 1968, Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich published the controversial book, The Population Bomb which warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation. People grew scared of the idea of a population explosion and its detrimental effects to society. As they acquired the paradigm that babies are burden, a trend not to be sexually active anymore in Western countries was created. This, in turn, resulted to a new demographic occurrence called by demographers as Demographic Winter. Demographic winter is a global phenomenon characterized by population decline in birth rates. The term â€Å"nuclear winter,† popularized in the 1980s, alluded to the catastrophic environ mental impact of a nuclear war. The long-term consequences of demographic winter could be equally devastating (Feder). The Total Fertility Rate, the expected number of children born per woman in her child-bearing years of 2.1, is said to be the point of equilibrium in which a country’s population is neither growing nor decreasing. Essentially, a woman must replace herself and a man. This TFR is important because this only shows that an average woman is able to produce  2.1 children during her lifetime which is needed because some children die before maturity and also to stabilize the number of the population. (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust). When the Total Fertility Rate of a State is 2.1 births per woman who has reached the end of her productive life (that is around 50 years old), the Net Production Rate is 1, that is to say, the state has reach population age stability. When it is not, or is less than the nation’s previous TFR, the nation undergoes the phenomenon called demographic winter. (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust). Although demographic winter is a global incident, geography and the country’s economic status are underlying factors that contributed to what extent and to which nations such an event would occur. Demographic winter is currently more evident in developed countries such as in Europe, Australia, East Asia (Japan) and North America (U.S.), whose populations were the first to mature. Maturity here is defined as the average age of the population relative to the economic development of society. These countries also suffered the worst depopulation during the World Wars and experienced rapid population growth after (Yew). We shall focus more on these countries as we elaborate the concept of demographic winter for the cases which will be mentioned later applies more to their population trends. Of the 1 0 countries with the lowest birth rates, 9 are in Europe. Overall, the European fertility rate is 1.3, well below replacement level (2.1). No European nation has a replacement-level birth rate. Italy’s fertility rate is 1.2. Spain’s is 1.1 (Feder). That means, in the not-too-distant future, these countries will lose half of their people in every generation. Russia’s birth rate fell from 2.4 in 1990 to 1.17 today – a decline of more than 50% in less than 20 years. Each year, there are more abortions than live births in the Russian Federation (Demographic Winter). In U.S. alone, Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is almost 3.5 in the early 1960s, then began declining sharply — to below 3.0 in 1965, to about 2.5 (and temporarily holding steady) in the late 1960s, and down to about 1.8 by the mid-1970s. Hence, the TFR fell by almost half between the early 1960s and the mid-1970s. After a decade of stability at a level of about 1.8, the total fertility rate rose slowly after 1986, reaching 2.08 in 1990. It presently st ands at a little over 2, just slightly below the replacement level of 2.11 (Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust). Japan’s TFR has continued to fall since dropping below 2.0 in 1975. It slumped to an all-time low of 1.26 in 2005. The number of babies born in the nation in 2012 fell by 13,705 from the previous year to hit a new low of 1,037,101 (Durden). With such data on hand, we now ask: â€Å"what are the factors that led to demographic winter?† According to the documentary film Demographic Winter: a Decline of the Human Family, fertility decline is caused by (1) economic prosperity, (2) sexual revolution, (3) women in the labour force, (4) Divorce revolution, and (5) inaccurate assumptions. As developed countries continue to rise in their economic status, a paradigm shift among members of the labour force occurs. Previously, babies are considered as blessings and investments by parents. Nowadays, they are viewed by parents as an added expense and burden to them. As standards of living in the urban areas of different countries continue to increase, life becomes harder to sustain. An added mouth to feed is just something that can’t be considered especially by realists. Richer countries want to invest and spend their money on adults, the more affluent, whom they can use for further economic development than children. Sexual revolution is also eyed as a contributing factor wherein Feminism is evident. The number of women in their 20s who had a child in 2012 decreased by 16,200 from the previous year, while the number of births among women aged from 35 to 39 and from 40 to 44 increased by a combined total of about 8,700. As more women are empowered and gain equal treatment in education and employment, they now opt to join the labour force, the corporate world and pursue career paths than devoting themselves to family life. Growing valuable time of working mothers constructed the mindset that they don’t want children, they want jobs instead. The labor force participation rates among married women with children, particularly young children, have been steadily increasing since 1970. In 1985, nearly half of all women with children under age 18 were in the labor force, as compared with less than 40 percent in 1970 (Hayghe). Moreover, the declines in fertility rates, as well as declines in family size, increasing childlessness, and delayed childbearing have freed many women to pursue employment opportunities outside the home. Completed family size, for example, decreased from 2.4 children in 1970 to 1 .7 in 1984 among white women, and from 3.1 to 2.2 children among blacks (U.S. Department of Health And Human Services). With the increase of participation of women in  the labour force, an inverse reciprocal in the fertility rates is also observed. Along with sexual revolution and the greater involvement of women on the labour force, divorce revolution can be viewed as a related contributing factor to the decline of fertility rates. With more women gaining financial and social capabilities in the society, marriage is now viewed as something superficial especially with the legalization of divorce in developed countries such as the United States. Not only has marriage been increasingly pushed to a late age, but once accomplished, marriages are more likely to end in divorce than at any previous time in History. Preston and McDonald (1979) estimated that although 16% of all marriages in the United States in 1915 ended in divorce, 36% of the 1964 marriages will end that way. However, by 1988, the data were suggesting a levelling off at about 43% of marriages ending in divorce (Schoen and Weinick). The Un ited States is certainly not unique in experiencing an increase in divorce probabilities. William Goode, in his book World Revolution and Family Patterns (1993), compiled data for Europe showing that throughout the said continent the percentage of marriages that will end in divorce virtually doubled between 1970 and the mid- 1980s. For example, in Germany in 1970 it is estimated that 16% of marriages would end in divorce, increasing to 30% in 1985. In France, the increase went from 12% to 31% during that same period of time. Australia has experienced similar trends (Weeks). With the said increase in the number of divorce cases, an inverse reciprocal for the fertility rate equals. Thus, divorce revolution is a cause of demographic winter. And lastly, the main culprit for all the causes of demographic winter is the inaccurate assumption made from the increasing population. As mentioned earlier in this paper, Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlich’s controversial book â€Å"The Population Bomb† propagated the idea that the rapid increase in population will eventually lead to population explosion causing food shortage. Such occurrence according to him cannot be sustained by the global community. Malthusian Theory stating that human population grows exponentially while food production grows at an arithmetic rate, made people including Ehrlich that such insustainability and shortage in resources is truly imminent. The predictions came true but not exactly as Ehrlich perceived it. The effects are mainly unfelt in the developed world and food production grew exponentially at a rate higher than population growth in  both developed and developing countries. Food per capita is the highest in history. During the greatest population-growth period in human history, food became cheaper and more abundant (prices dropped up to 70%). Population gro wth rates, on the other hand, significantly slowed down especially in the developed world (Erlich). The sad reality at present is this misconception still lingers on the thoughts of the educated ones. This now resulted to interference of government to population growth by creating and implementing policies that aims to decrease rates of population growth. Examples are Reproductive Health Act in U. S. and One-child policy in China and Singapore. The biggest impact on fertility from the pill was from eliminating â€Å"unwanted pregnancies† by 70% of married woman (Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality). Secularization is also a factor that affects fertility rates. The anti-Christian, anti-family ideology which can be rooted to the Marxist view of activists currently sweeping across most of Western civilisation has precipitated a culture of death that is slowly but inexorably killing off the human family. Those who believe about meaning of life have children. Those who don’t, don’t (Feder). We can therefore say that all aspects of modernity work against fam ily life and is in favour of singleness, having a small family, or opting to have no child at all. Add up to that none of these problems can be easily fixed. It’s who we are and what we’ve become increasingly in these modern times. But the question here that remains is, if we are experiencing demographic winter, why is that population continues to grow? This now can be attributed to the Alternatives of developed countries to compensate for their declining population which is immigration (esp. on Europe and Australia) (Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality). Also, the issue of ageing population comes in. What we currently perceive is that death rate is less compared to before. Less people are born but also lesser die thus creating that aged population. Given the origin, definition and causes of demographic winter, let us now focus to its effects on society. This can now be classified into (1) biological, (2) political, and to the (3) economy. However, these can be inter-related. Research has shown that demographics can have a significant impact on countries’ stability, governance, economic development and the well-being of its people (Population Action International). As stated earlier, an ageing population is an issue that can be attributed to  biological effects of demographic winter. In 1998, there was a 48-year lag between births and peak spending of those individuals. Japan is one of the countries to first experience demographic winter after the world war for they did not experience the Baby Bomb, unlike U.S. Developed countries will have this age trap or the said modern inverted pyramid wherein number of grandparents is greater than the number of children. This is in contrast to the trend before wherein the number of children is greater than the grandparents’. With this occurrence, the children will not be able to sufficiently take care of the old due to lack of number. Also, some countries might cease to exist. There are fifty-nine (59) nations, namely, Russia, China, Spain, Portugal, Canada, Italy, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, (Central Inteligence Agency) – with 44% of the world’s population – th at are now experiencing below-replacement birth rates. Worldwide, there are 6 million fewer children (under age 6) today than there were in 1990. The United Nations estimates that if current trends continue, by 2050 there will be 248 million fewer children (under age 5) than there are now. Overall, Europe’s fertility rate is 1.3; a birth rate of 2.1 is needed just to replace current population. In this century, countries such as Italy, Spain, Russia and even France could cease to exist – at least as they’re currently constituted. Demographer Philip Longman (author of The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birth rates Threaten World Prosperity) observes: The on-going global decline in human birth rates is the single most powerful force affecting the fate of nations and the future of society in the 21st century. â€Å"Demographic winter is a great predictor of a country’s fate and future because children are essential for a country’s economic survival,† Longman added. As Japan’s population has aged beyond 48 years old, its consumer spending has steadily declined. Here now enters the effects to economy. Never in history is an ageing population able to develop a prosperous economy (Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality). Why? The ratio of young to old will shift dramatically and wreak havoc upon existing social security and healthcare systems. The economy at large may also suffer, as the elderly cease spending and a smaller generation of workers is crippled by the taxes needed to support their parents. â€Å"The world this will bring about, according to the filmmakers, is bleak: grandparents left untended and alone in the streets of Europe as intergenerational bonds are  shattered; the potential desolation of small countries such as Latvia, and a worldwide depression that will touch even those countries that don’t disappear under the sheath of snow that the film shows blanketing the entire globe.† (Joyce). So argues Harry S. Dent, Jr., an economist who specializes in â€Å"demographic-based economic forecasting,† and who predicts that the West will follow Japan’s aging population bust. Politically, demographic winter can be associated with the voting body. A political analysis said that political preference reveals that the metaphorical eggs of Republicans rest entirely in one basket: the vote s of older white people. According to the exit polls conducted by the New York Times of the 2012 presidential election, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won 59 percent of white voters, and 56 percent of voters over age 65. The intersection of those two areas is the demographic base of the Republican Party, and it is dying. Markos Moulitsas posited that conservatives’ endeavours to weaken the social safety net have made it harder for these seniors who comprise the Republican base to stay alive (Atkins). While some may still debunk and not accept the fact that such phenomenon is happening, it just happens, and will still continue despite of us shunning the thought of it. Demographic winter is no joke. Further neglect of the declining rates of population growth will soon not only affect political, biological, and economic aspects of society but may also jeopardize even the existence of mankind in the future. I value intellectual integrity and the highest standards of academic conduct. I am committed to an ethical learning environment that promotes a high standard of honor in scholastic work. Academic dishonesty undermines institutional integrity and threatens the academic fabric of the University of the Philippines. And because I believe that dishonesty is not an acceptable avenue to success, I aff ix my signature to this work to affirm that it is original and free of cheating and plagiarism, and does not knowingly furnish false information.† ______________________________ Mary Philline Descalzo Works Cited Atkins, Dante. Daily Kos. 23 June 2013. Web. 29 August 2013. . Central Inteligence Agency. The World Fact Book. n.d. Web. 12 September 2013. . Demographic Winter. n.d. Web. 29 August 2013. . Demographic Winter. Demographic Winter: The New Economic Reality. 2011. Web. 29 August 2013. . Durden, Tyler. Japanese Birth Rate Plunges To Record Low As Death-Rate Hits Record High. 7 June 2013. web. 29 August 2013. . Erlich, Paul R. The Population Bomb. New York: Ballantine Books, 1968. Print. 29 August 2013. Feder, Don. Demographic Winter. 5 March 2008. Web. 29 August 2013. . Fluctuating Fertility: The Baby Boom and the Baby Bust. n.d. Web. 29 August 2013. . Gone for Goode. Dir. Barry Levinson. Perf. 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